2026 · Week 15 · Division
Scheduled
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
- -0.031EPA / play-0.081
- 41.9%Success rate40.9%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.011
- 6.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.08CPOE-2.76
- 43.6%Third-down rate40.9%
- 76.7%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 2.19Points / drive1.86
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.90