Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-2.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cardinalsedge mapSaints
- +0.139EPA / play+0.030
- 48.6%Success rate44.3%
- +0.270EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.075
- 5.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- +4.61CPOE-1.21
- 46.2%Third-down rate47.1%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.35Points / drive2.20
- 0.0%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.90
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.68