Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cardinalsedge mapSaints
- -0.007EPA / play-0.031
- 44.1%Success rate41.9%
- +0.027EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.169
- 5.2%Explosive rate6.1%
- +0.66CPOE+0.08
- 39.0%Third-down rate43.6%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate76.7%
- 1.94Points / drive2.19
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.10