Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapBroncos
- +0.210EPA / play-0.040
- 49.2%Success rate37.9%
- +0.338EPA / dropback-0.004
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.093
- 13.6%Explosive rate6.4%
- +4.89CPOE-2.61
- 48.3%Third-down rate31.4%
- 70.0%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 3.19Points / drive1.75
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. DEN are 3-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.61