Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-13.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapBroncos
- +0.300EPA / play-0.378
- 41.8%Success rate36.0%
- +0.597EPA / dropback-0.442
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.228
- 14.5%Explosive rate2.0%
- +8.14CPOE-7.78
- 33.3%Third-down rate16.7%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 3.07Points / drive0.83
- 0.0%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. DEN are 3-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-15.41
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-13.27