Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
-0.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bengalsedge mapColts
- +0.108EPA / play-0.063
- 48.7%Success rate42.5%
- +0.206EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.087EPA / rush+0.030
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- +7.31CPOE-4.20
- 50.7%Third-down rate40.1%
- 64.8%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.52Points / drive1.93
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.41
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.19