Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-9.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bengalsedge mapColts
- +0.001EPA / play-0.225
- 47.6%Success rate42.6%
- -0.030EPA / dropback-0.409
- +0.050EPA / rush+0.116
- 11.1%Explosive rate13.0%
- +6.35CPOE-5.06
- 57.1%Third-down rate30.0%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.11Points / drive1.99
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-11.71
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-9.50