Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+2.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Brownsedge mapRavens
- -0.040EPA / play+0.071
- 42.7%Success rate46.2%
- +0.039EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.080
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.22CPOE+4.76
- 32.8%Third-down rate41.4%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.65Points / drive2.06
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.41