Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+15.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Packersedge mapBears
- -0.181EPA / play+0.361
- 38.2%Success rate53.3%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.551
- -0.438EPA / rush+0.143
- 13.2%Explosive rate12.0%
- -9.65CPOE+16.58
- 25.0%Third-down rate71.4%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.91Points / drive4.19
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+13.00
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+15.30