Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Packersedge mapBears
- +0.010EPA / play+0.052
- 40.0%Success rate47.0%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.266EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.28CPOE+5.30
- 36.3%Third-down rate44.6%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.96Points / drive2.27
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 41–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.45