Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-12.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapCowboys
- +0.310EPA / play+0.271
- 59.3%Success rate48.3%
- +0.731EPA / dropback+0.425
- -0.053EPA / rush-0.100
- 16.7%Explosive rate0.0%
- +22.32CPOE+7.73
- 55.6%Third-down rate72.7%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 3.76Points / drive2.98
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-14.74
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-12.52