Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapCowboys
- +0.124EPA / play+0.120
- 46.5%Success rate47.6%
- +0.228EPA / dropback+0.201
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.034
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.1%
- +3.75CPOE+0.48
- 49.5%Third-down rate47.2%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
- 2.66Points / drive2.88
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.98
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.76