Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chargersedge mapDolphins
- -0.209EPA / play-0.049
- 36.9%Success rate39.8%
- -0.191EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.235EPA / rush-0.107
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- -5.83CPOE-6.93
- 33.8%Third-down rate40.9%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.22Points / drive1.79
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.36