Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.4est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Patriotsedge mapJets
- +0.052EPA / play+0.011
- 45.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.215EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.200EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- +7.12CPOE+5.33
- 40.8%Third-down rate37.1%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.06Points / drive1.91
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 43–14 since 1999
NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.93
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.37