Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+8.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Patriotsedge mapJets
- -0.092EPA / play+0.126
- 40.8%Success rate48.4%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.338
- -0.451EPA / rush-0.038
- 1.4%Explosive rate10.9%
- +5.97CPOE+12.84
- 31.3%Third-down rate18.2%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.11Points / drive2.08
- 4.2%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+8.70