Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Giantsedge mapLions
- +0.363EPA / play-0.027
- 59.1%Success rate45.5%
- +0.667EPA / dropback+0.012
- +0.059EPA / rush-0.072
- 6.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- +13.38CPOE-2.91
- 90.0%Third-down rate38.5%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 3.97Points / drive2.20
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.15
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.93