Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Giantsedge mapLions
- +0.027EPA / play+0.144
- 42.9%Success rate49.9%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.309
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.108
- 7.8%Explosive rate10.3%
- -2.00CPOE+1.18
- 44.9%Third-down rate39.7%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 2.15Points / drive2.92
- 2.1%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 7–4 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.41