Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+4.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
49ersedge mapChiefs
- +0.190EPA / play+0.118
- 56.9%Success rate40.9%
- +0.227EPA / dropback-0.014
- +0.142EPA / rush+0.259
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.77CPOE-11.92
- 58.3%Third-down rate56.3%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.98Points / drive2.57
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. KC are 8-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+3.99