Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
49ersedge mapChiefs
- +0.153EPA / play+0.113
- 52.5%Success rate47.1%
- +0.265EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.001EPA / rush+0.065
- 10.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.63CPOE+1.39
- 51.0%Third-down rate39.9%
- 88.6%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 2.81Points / drive2.26
- 1.9%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–3 since 1999
KC have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. KC are 8-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+2.17