2026 · Week 16 · Division
Scheduled
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
- -0.081EPA / play-0.358
- 51.8%Success rate36.7%
- -0.168EPA / dropback-0.638
- +0.118EPA / rush-0.113
- 5.4%Explosive rate10.0%
- +14.02CPOE-10.42
- 50.0%Third-down rate16.7%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.44Points / drive0.46
- 7.1%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.70