2026 · Week 16 · Division
Scheduled
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
- -0.091EPA / play-0.087
- 41.1%Success rate42.9%
- -0.151EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.023EPA / rush-0.027
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- -3.59CPOE-7.31
- 39.8%Third-down rate35.0%
- 53.6%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.80Points / drive1.72
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 26–25 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.94