2026 · Week 16 · Division
Scheduled
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
- -0.081EPA / play-0.038
- 40.9%Success rate44.5%
- -0.130EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.011EPA / rush+0.001
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- -2.76CPOE-4.68
- 40.9%Third-down rate39.3%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 1.86Points / drive1.93
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.04