Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+13.3est.
LV perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapRaiders
- -0.141EPA / play-0.029
- 44.0%Success rate43.1%
- -0.152EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.083
- 4.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- +0.39CPOE+0.71
- 33.3%Third-down rate41.7%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 0.99Points / drive2.44
- 0.0%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. LV are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+11.11
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+13.33