Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.9est.
LV perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapRaiders
- -0.124EPA / play+0.019
- 40.2%Success rate43.1%
- -0.123EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.252
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- -0.37CPOE-1.41
- 34.7%Third-down rate40.6%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 1.42Points / drive2.49
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. LV are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.90