Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+7.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Commandersedge mapVikings
- +0.073EPA / play+0.055
- 43.5%Success rate37.7%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.208
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.125
- 4.3%Explosive rate3.3%
- -3.44CPOE-4.89
- 33.3%Third-down rate57.1%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 1.99Points / drive2.90
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.38
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.60