Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+5.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Commandersedge mapVikings
- -0.008EPA / play-0.099
- 41.3%Success rate36.7%
- +0.069EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.195
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- +3.27CPOE+0.39
- 31.3%Third-down rate38.6%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 1.86Points / drive1.65
- 0.5%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.24