Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-7.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ravensedge mapBengals
- +0.209EPA / play+0.001
- 46.9%Success rate47.6%
- +0.316EPA / dropback-0.030
- +0.101EPA / rush+0.050
- 10.9%Explosive rate11.1%
- +4.80CPOE+6.35
- 37.5%Third-down rate57.1%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 3.13Points / drive2.11
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-9.18
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.96