Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapDolphins
- +0.210EPA / play-0.049
- 49.2%Success rate39.8%
- +0.338EPA / dropback-0.005
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.107
- 13.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.89CPOE-6.93
- 48.3%Third-down rate40.9%
- 70.0%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 3.19Points / drive1.79
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.15
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-1.09