Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-9.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapDolphins
- +0.300EPA / play-0.242
- 41.8%Success rate34.5%
- +0.597EPA / dropback-0.183
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.399
- 14.5%Explosive rate10.9%
- +8.14CPOE-8.85
- 33.3%Third-down rate20.0%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 3.07Points / drive1.18
- 0.0%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-11.13
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin-9.07