Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Broncosedge mapPatriots
- -0.040EPA / play+0.052
- 37.9%Success rate45.0%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.200
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.4%
- -2.61CPOE+7.12
- 31.4%Third-down rate40.8%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.75Points / drive2.06
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+2.48