Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+9.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Broncosedge mapPatriots
- -0.378EPA / play-0.092
- 36.0%Success rate40.8%
- -0.442EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.228EPA / rush-0.451
- 2.0%Explosive rate1.4%
- -7.78CPOE+5.97
- 16.7%Third-down rate31.3%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 0.83Points / drive1.11
- 4.0%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.69
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+9.75