Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+10.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Lionsedge mapBears
- -0.027EPA / play+0.361
- 45.5%Success rate53.3%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.551
- -0.072EPA / rush+0.143
- 10.4%Explosive rate12.0%
- -2.91CPOE+16.58
- 38.5%Third-down rate71.4%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.20Points / drive4.19
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.46
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+10.92