Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Lionsedge mapBears
- +0.144EPA / play+0.052
- 49.9%Success rate47.0%
- +0.309EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.082
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.18CPOE+5.30
- 39.7%Third-down rate44.6%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 2.92Points / drive2.27
- 0.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.77