Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+3.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapBrowns
- -0.063EPA / play-0.040
- 42.5%Success rate42.7%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.039
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.175
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- -4.20CPOE-1.22
- 40.1%Third-down rate32.8%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.93Points / drive1.65
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.45