Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+1.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapBrowns
- -0.225EPA / play-0.206
- 42.6%Success rate43.1%
- -0.409EPA / dropback-0.257
- +0.116EPA / rush-0.119
- 13.0%Explosive rate7.8%
- -5.06CPOE+10.32
- 30.0%Third-down rate12.5%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 1.99Points / drive1.11
- 3.7%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.19