Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-17.2est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapChargers
- +0.118EPA / play-0.167
- 40.9%Success rate40.0%
- -0.014EPA / dropback-0.087
- +0.259EPA / rush-0.360
- 9.1%Explosive rate5.5%
- -11.92CPOE-6.21
- 56.3%Third-down rate25.0%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.57Points / drive1.39
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. LAC are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-19.38
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-17.16