Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.8est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapChargers
- +0.113EPA / play-0.231
- 47.1%Success rate35.9%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.210
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.262
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.8%
- +1.39CPOE-4.44
- 39.9%Third-down rate34.6%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.26Points / drive1.17
- 0.9%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. LAC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.00
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.79