2026 · Week 17
Scheduled
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ramsedge mapBuccaneers
- +0.059EPA / play-0.081
- 49.0%Success rate40.9%
- +0.117EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.042EPA / rush-0.011
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.33CPOE-2.76
- 46.2%Third-down rate40.9%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 2.15Points / drive1.86
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+0.09