Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Saintsedge mapFalcons
- -0.031EPA / play-0.087
- 41.9%Success rate42.9%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.027
- 6.1%Explosive rate8.7%
- +0.08CPOE-7.31
- 43.6%Third-down rate35.0%
- 76.7%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 2.19Points / drive1.72
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.09