Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Saintsedge mapFalcons
- -0.031EPA / play-0.038
- 41.9%Success rate44.5%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.169EPA / rush+0.001
- 6.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.08CPOE-4.68
- 43.6%Third-down rate39.3%
- 76.7%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 2.19Points / drive1.93
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.72