Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+13.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Eaglesedge map49ers
- +0.027EPA / play+0.190
- 34.0%Success rate56.9%
- +0.136EPA / dropback+0.227
- -0.167EPA / rush+0.142
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- +0.87CPOE+0.77
- 42.9%Third-down rate58.3%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 1.99Points / drive2.98
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+11.23
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+13.21