Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+5.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Eaglesedge map49ers
- -0.096EPA / play+0.153
- 37.7%Success rate52.5%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.001
- 4.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- -2.40CPOE+4.63
- 36.2%Third-down rate51.0%
- 73.9%Red-zone TD rate88.6%
- 1.70Points / drive2.81
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.75
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.73