Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-7.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapTitans
- -0.251EPA / play-0.141
- 33.8%Success rate44.0%
- -0.251EPA / dropback-0.152
- -0.252EPA / rush-0.096
- 6.2%Explosive rate4.0%
- +1.23CPOE+0.39
- 25.0%Third-down rate33.3%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.00Points / drive0.99
- 1.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-9.62
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-7.41