Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapTitans
- -0.011EPA / play-0.083
- 42.8%Success rate41.6%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.067
- +0.097EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.0%
- -2.16CPOE-0.46
- 36.7%Third-down rate35.8%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 1.87Points / drive1.55
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.61