Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapTitans
- -0.029EPA / play-0.124
- 42.3%Success rate40.2%
- -0.063EPA / dropback-0.123
- +0.043EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.1%Explosive rate6.3%
- -1.45CPOE-0.37
- 36.8%Third-down rate34.7%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.79Points / drive1.42
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.19