Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Falconsedge mapPanthers
- -0.038EPA / play+0.019
- 44.5%Success rate41.9%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.072
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.084
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.68CPOE-0.58
- 39.3%Third-down rate39.3%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.93Points / drive2.15
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–22 since 1999
CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.12