Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
-1.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Falconsedge mapPanthers
- -0.358EPA / play+0.130
- 36.7%Success rate47.1%
- -0.638EPA / dropback+0.242
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.106
- 10.0%Explosive rate11.8%
- -10.42CPOE+4.17
- 16.7%Third-down rate44.4%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 0.46Points / drive2.90
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.11
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.89