Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bearsedge mapVikings
- +0.361EPA / play+0.055
- 53.3%Success rate37.7%
- +0.551EPA / dropback+0.208
- +0.143EPA / rush-0.125
- 12.0%Explosive rate3.3%
- +16.58CPOE-4.89
- 71.4%Third-down rate57.1%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 4.19Points / drive2.90
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.33