Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bearsedge mapVikings
- +0.052EPA / play-0.099
- 47.0%Success rate37.7%
- +0.154EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.206
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- +5.30CPOE+0.08
- 44.6%Third-down rate37.6%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
- 2.27Points / drive1.60
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.84