Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Brownsedge mapBengals
- -0.040EPA / play+0.108
- 42.7%Success rate48.7%
- +0.039EPA / dropback+0.206
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.087
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.22CPOE+7.31
- 32.8%Third-down rate50.7%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
- 1.65Points / drive2.52
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.64