Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+2.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Lionsedge mapPackers
- +0.144EPA / play+0.010
- 49.9%Success rate40.0%
- +0.309EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.266
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.18CPOE-1.28
- 39.7%Third-down rate36.3%
- 70.4%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 2.92Points / drive1.96
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.30