Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+2.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Lionsedge mapPackers
- +0.119EPA / play+0.010
- 49.6%Success rate40.0%
- +0.264EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.266
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.28CPOE-1.28
- 39.5%Third-down rate36.3%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 2.76Points / drive1.96
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.92