Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-20.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapColts
- +0.310EPA / play-0.225
- 59.3%Success rate42.6%
- +0.731EPA / dropback-0.409
- -0.053EPA / rush+0.116
- 16.7%Explosive rate13.0%
- +22.32CPOE-5.06
- 55.6%Third-down rate30.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 3.76Points / drive1.99
- 0.0%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-22.29
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-20.07