Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapColts
- +0.117EPA / play-0.063
- 46.8%Success rate42.5%
- +0.227EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.030EPA / rush+0.030
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.79CPOE-4.20
- 49.4%Third-down rate40.1%
- 71.6%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.62Points / drive1.93
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.88
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.66