Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+4.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chargersedge mapBroncos
- -0.231EPA / play-0.018
- 35.9%Success rate38.8%
- -0.210EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.262EPA / rush-0.095
- 6.8%Explosive rate6.9%
- -4.44CPOE-2.74
- 34.6%Third-down rate29.8%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.17Points / drive1.84
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.26