Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chargersedge mapBroncos
- -0.167EPA / play-0.378
- 40.0%Success rate36.0%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.442
- -0.360EPA / rush-0.228
- 5.5%Explosive rate2.0%
- -6.21CPOE-7.78
- 25.0%Third-down rate16.7%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.39Points / drive0.83
- 3.6%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.71