Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+10.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Raidersedge mapChiefs
- -0.029EPA / play+0.118
- 43.1%Success rate40.9%
- +0.027EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.259
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.71CPOE-11.92
- 41.7%Third-down rate56.3%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.44Points / drive2.57
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.61
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.83