Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+5.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Raidersedge mapChiefs
- +0.019EPA / play+0.104
- 43.1%Success rate46.6%
- +0.168EPA / dropback+0.122
- -0.252EPA / rush+0.075
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.0%
- -1.41CPOE+0.11
- 40.6%Third-down rate39.3%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 2.49Points / drive2.28
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.77
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.99