Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+5.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
- -0.049EPA / play+0.052
- 39.8%Success rate45.0%
- -0.005EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.200
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- -6.93CPOE+7.12
- 40.9%Third-down rate40.8%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.79Points / drive2.06
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.05
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.26