Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+5.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Dolphinsedge mapPatriots
- -0.242EPA / play-0.092
- 34.5%Success rate40.8%
- -0.183EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.399EPA / rush-0.451
- 10.9%Explosive rate1.4%
- -8.85CPOE+5.97
- 20.0%Third-down rate31.3%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.18Points / drive1.11
- 3.6%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.42
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.64