Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+4.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jetsedge mapBills
- +0.011EPA / play+0.210
- 44.6%Success rate49.2%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.338
- -0.148EPA / rush+0.031
- 9.3%Explosive rate13.6%
- +5.33CPOE+4.89
- 37.1%Third-down rate48.3%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate70.0%
- 1.91Points / drive3.19
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.25