Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+5.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Eaglesedge mapGiants
- -0.096EPA / play+0.027
- 37.7%Success rate42.9%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.102
- 4.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- -2.40CPOE-2.00
- 36.2%Third-down rate44.9%
- 73.9%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.70Points / drive2.15
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.09