Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+10.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapRavens
- -0.251EPA / play+0.209
- 33.8%Success rate46.9%
- -0.251EPA / dropback+0.316
- -0.252EPA / rush+0.101
- 6.2%Explosive rate10.9%
- +1.23CPOE+4.80
- 25.0%Third-down rate37.5%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 1.00Points / drive3.13
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.36
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+10.82