Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Steelersedge mapRavens
- -0.029EPA / play+0.071
- 42.3%Success rate46.2%
- -0.063EPA / dropback+0.186
- +0.043EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.45CPOE+4.76
- 36.8%Third-down rate41.4%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.79Points / drive2.06
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.24