Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
49ersedge mapCardinals
- +0.190EPA / play+0.139
- 56.9%Success rate48.6%
- +0.227EPA / dropback+0.270
- +0.142EPA / rush-0.044
- 7.7%Explosive rate5.6%
- +0.77CPOE+4.61
- 58.3%Third-down rate46.2%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 2.98Points / drive2.35
- 1.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.08