Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
49ersedge mapCardinals
- +0.153EPA / play-0.024
- 52.5%Success rate44.6%
- +0.265EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.8%Explosive rate4.4%
- +4.63CPOE+0.50
- 51.0%Third-down rate38.2%
- 88.6%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 2.81Points / drive1.84
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.08
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.86