2026 · Week 18 · Division
Scheduled
Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapSaints
- -0.081EPA / play-0.031
- 40.9%Success rate41.9%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.011EPA / rush-0.169
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.1%
- -2.76CPOE+0.08
- 40.9%Third-down rate43.6%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate76.7%
- 1.86Points / drive2.19
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.54