2026 · Week 18 · Division
Scheduled
Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+6.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapSaints
- -0.081EPA / play+0.030
- 51.8%Success rate44.3%
- -0.168EPA / dropback+0.067
- +0.118EPA / rush-0.075
- 5.4%Explosive rate9.1%
- +14.02CPOE-1.21
- 50.0%Third-down rate47.1%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 1.44Points / drive2.20
- 7.1%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.59
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.81