Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+3.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapTexans
- -0.083EPA / play+0.031
- 41.6%Success rate43.4%
- -0.067EPA / dropback+0.138
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.167
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- -0.46CPOE+2.27
- 35.8%Third-down rate37.8%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate60.4%
- 1.55Points / drive2.19
- 2.1%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 25–24 since 1999
HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.25