Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapTexans
- -0.141EPA / play+0.071
- 44.0%Success rate48.1%
- -0.152EPA / dropback+0.098
- -0.096EPA / rush+0.030
- 4.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.39CPOE+3.16
- 33.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 0.99Points / drive2.80
- 0.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 28-19-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.73