Closing spread
TEN -8.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.033
- 41.2%Success rate39.2%
- +0.123EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.158
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- 36.7%Third-down rate42.4%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 1.42Points / drive1.28
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.025EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. TEN are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 13/21 | 144 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Frank Moreau | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Kimble Anders | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 5 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Sylvester Morris | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil O'Donnell | 11/16 | 132 | 1 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 11/18 | 93 | 0 | 2 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1/1 | 30 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 21 | 80 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dyson | 6 | 9 | 104 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.65