2000 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Rob Johnson

14·27

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

38.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJets
  • -0.059EPA / play-0.073
  • 39.9%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.161
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 38.0%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.29
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.5%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.101

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00523Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:381485Touchdown7–6
NYJQ1 6:1000Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 5:5135Punt7–7
NYJQ1 4:4138Punt7–7
BUFQ1 3:0436Punt7–7
NYJQ1 1:37411Punt7–7
BUFQ2 14:123-13Punt7–7
NYJQ2 12:30936Touchdown7–14
BUFQ2 7:41514Punt7–14
NYJQ2 5:13837Punt7–14
BUFQ2 2:02493Touchdown14–14
NYJQ2 1:07770Touchdown14–21
BUFQ3 15:00953Missed field goal14–21
NYJQ3 10:20612Field goal14–24
BUFQ3 7:15624Punt14–24
NYJQ3 4:28621Turnover14–24
BUFQ3 2:04646Turnover14–24
NYJQ4 14:1533Punt14–24
NYJQ4 13:05835Missed field goal14–24
BUFQ4 7:4933Punt14–24
NYJQ4 6:5638Punt14–24
NYJQ4 4:35616Field goal14–27
BUFQ4 1:561038Turnover14–27
NYJQ4 0:2600End of half14–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rob Johnson21/3629121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson12403.30
Rob Johnson3186.00
Antowain Smith5132.60
Sammy Morris393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy McDaniel23931
Eric Moulds815781
Jay Riemersma33480
Bobby Collins34330
Peerless Price14200
Sammy Morris34110
Sheldon Jackson1180
Shawn Bryson0100
Kwame Cavil0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde16/3218811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin29842.91
Dedric Ward2105.00
Vinny Testaverde1-1-1.00
Ray Lucas1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Martin44440
Wayne Chrebet412360
Vincent Brisby11170
Dedric Ward14140
Jermaine Wiggins1130
Anthony Becht0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.31