Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
38.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.073
- 39.9%Success rate39.6%
- +0.029EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 38.0%Third-down rate37.5%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.36Points / drive1.29
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.101
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 21/36 | 291 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McDaniel | 2 | 3 | 93 | 1 |
| Eric Moulds | 8 | 15 | 78 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwame Cavil | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 16/32 | 188 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 29 | 84 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 4 | 12 | 36 | 0 |
| Vincent Brisby | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.31