Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
36
Model margin
-6.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.044
- 39.2%Success rate38.6%
- +0.085EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- 42.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.28Points / drive1.37
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil O'Donnell | 13/27 | 237 | 0 | 3 |
| Steve McNair | 3/3 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 27 | 74 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Pickens | 2 | 10 | 105 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 2 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Graham | 18/33 | 254 | 0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 1/4 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 3 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Cory Geason | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
32.3%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.31
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-6.43