2000 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Neil O'Donnell

23·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kent Graham

Three Rivers Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 61°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

TEN -7

Total

36

Model margin

-6.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSteelers
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.044
  • 39.2%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback-0.014
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.076
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.9%
  • 42.4%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.37
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%
  • -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.119

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PIT
PITQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:48488Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 11:24835Field goal7–3
TENQ1 6:501049Field goal10–3
PITQ1 1:3038Punt10–3
TENQ2 14:4724Turnover10–3
PITQ2 13:55626Field goal10–6
TENQ2 10:11752Turnover10–6
PITQ2 6:37623Punt10–6
TENQ2 2:5231Punt10–6
PITQ2 1:46961Turnover10–6
TENQ2 0:341-1End of half10–6
TENQ3 15:00733Punt10–6
PITQ3 10:0530Punt10–6
TENQ3 9:03633Field goal13–6
PITQ3 6:12530Punt13–6
TENQ3 3:4539Punt13–6
PITQ3 1:33542Touchdown13–13
TENQ4 14:58418Field goal16–13
PITQ4 12:4236Punt16–13
TENQ4 11:31515Turnover16–13
PITQ4 9:25453Touchdown16–20
TENQ4 7:5049Punt16–20
PITQ4 6:32532Punt16–20
TENQ4 3:11663Touchdown23–20
PITQ4 1:25642Missed field goal23–20
TENQ4 0:181-1End of half23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Neil O'Donnell13/2723703
Steve McNair3/35510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George27742.71
Steve McNair284.00
Neil O'Donnell231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Carl Pickens2101050
Derrick Mason55710
Chris Sanders47540
Erron Kinney24351
Frank Wycheck11240
Eddie George1220

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kent Graham18/3325400
Kordell Stewart1/4600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis19774.11
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala4215.30
Kordell Stewart2178.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward57590
Troy Edwards36500
Bobby Shaw26380
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala34360
Cory Geason11360
Jerome Bettis33200
Plaxico Burress16170
Mark Bruener1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.2%3.4%5.0%3.2%7.3%6.1%3.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

32.3%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-5.31
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-6.43