Closing spread
BUF -1.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.123EPA / play-0.059
- 45.8%Success rate39.9%
- +0.249EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.203
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- 46.8%Third-down rate38.0%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 2.04Points / drive1.36
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.005EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 13:37 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| IND | Q1 7:19 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 3:35 | 9 | 61 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| IND | Q2 14:12 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q2 13:49 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| IND | Q2 8:54 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–9 |
| BUF | Q2 4:09 | 12 | 38 | Punt | 7–9 |
| IND | Q2 0:07 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–9 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–9 |
| IND | Q3 12:40 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–9 |
| BUF | Q3 11:39 | 12 | 71 | Punt | 7–9 |
| IND | Q3 3:41 | 8 | 70 | — | 7–9 |
| IND | Q4 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–9 |
| IND | Q4 15:00 | 2 | 15 | Touchdown | 15–9 |
| BUF | Q4 14:10 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 15–9 |
| IND | Q4 11:49 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 15–9 |
| BUF | Q4 9:56 | 8 | 9 | Punt | 15–9 |
| IND | Q4 7:11 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 15–9 |
| BUF | Q4 2:05 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 15–16 |
| IND | Q4 1:08 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 18–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 16/27 | 187 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 3 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 21/32 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 9 | 15 | 112 | 1 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 3 | 3 | 73 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+2.48