Closing spread
MIA -2
Total
34.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.033
- 39.9%Success rate38.4%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 38.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.36Points / drive1.52
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.111
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.03