2000 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

23·14

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Akili Smith

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -10

Total

38

Model margin

-3.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBengals
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.157
  • 39.2%Success rate34.1%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback-0.180
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.129
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 42.4%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
  • 1.28Points / drive0.82
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.194EPA / play allowed+0.014

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

CIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. CIN are 12-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8TEN @ CIN36–43CIN
2024 · W15CIN @ TEN37–27CIN
2023 · W4CIN @ TEN3–27TEN
2022 · W12CIN @ TEN20–16CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ TEN19–16CIN
2020 · W8TEN @ CIN20–31CIN
2017 · W10CIN @ TEN20–24TEN
2014 · W3TEN @ CIN7–33CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–CIN
TENQ1 15:001266Field goal3–0
CINQ1 7:2500Punt3–0
TENQ1 7:15416Punt3–0
CINQ1 4:4937Punt3–0
TENQ1 3:15442Turnover3–0
CINQ1 1:3236Punt3–0
TENQ1 0:1158Punt3–6
CINQ2 14:02180Touchdown3–7
TENQ2 13:481474Touchdown10–7
CINQ2 6:45738Missed field goal10–7
TENQ2 3:3124Opp touchdown10–14
CINQ2 2:4800Opp touchdown10–14
TENQ2 2:48412Punt10–14
CINQ2 1:2534End of half10–14
CINQ3 15:0069Punt10–14
TENQ3 12:09677Touchdown17–14
CINQ3 8:4831Punt17–14
TENQ3 7:45738Field goal20–14
CINQ3 3:2833Punt20–14
TENQ3 2:2937Punt20–14
CINQ3 1:0238Punt20–14
TENQ4 14:161059Missed field goal20–14
CINQ4 7:56313Punt20–14
TENQ4 6:0739Punt20–14
CINQ4 4:3121Turnover20–14
TENQ4 3:4537Field goal23–14
CINQ4 2:06743Missed field goal23–14
TENQ4 0:401-2End of half23–14

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair19/3123011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George361815.01
Steve McNair5173.40
Rodney Thomas351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Wycheck712680
Derrick Mason69651
Chris Sanders24560
Eddie George33330
Erron Kinney1280

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Akili Smith10/238500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon15956.31
Akili Smith33311.00
Brandon Bennett111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ron Dugans38250
Brandon Bennett11170
Marco Battaglia13150
Peter Warrick14100
Corey Dillon1170
Danny Farmer1150
Tony McGee1340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.4%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.27