Closing spread
TEN -10
Total
38
Model margin
-3.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.157
- 39.2%Success rate34.1%
- +0.085EPA / dropback-0.180
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.129
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- 42.4%Third-down rate34.8%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate34.6%
- 1.28Points / drive0.82
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. CIN are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 19/31 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 36 | 181 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Wycheck | 7 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 9 | 65 | 1 |
| Chris Sanders | 2 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 10/23 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 15 | 95 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Akili Smith | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dugans | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.4%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.27