Closing spread
TEN -6
Total
38
Model margin
+4.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.033
- 41.4%Success rate39.2%
- +0.066EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- 42.8%Third-down rate42.4%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 1.87Points / drive1.28
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 12:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:44 | 4 | 73 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q1 7:37 | 6 | 34 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q1 4:11 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| TEN | Q1 1:48 | 9 | 81 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q2 12:41 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–14 |
| TEN | Q2 10:36 | 6 | 50 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| JAX | Q2 6:44 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| TEN | Q2 5:03 | 6 | 53 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| JAX | Q2 1:59 | 8 | 80 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| TEN | Q2 0:35 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 3–17 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TEN | Q3 12:27 | 6 | 89 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| JAX | Q3 8:48 | 6 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 3–24 |
| TEN | Q3 5:58 | 4 | 23 | Missed field goal | 3–24 |
| JAX | Q3 3:40 | 11 | 43 | Field goal | 6–24 |
| TEN | Q4 13:19 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 6–24 |
| JAX | Q4 11:30 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–24 |
| TEN | Q4 10:05 | 11 | 72 | Field goal | 6–27 |
| JAX | Q4 3:37 | 9 | 50 | Touchdown | 13–27 |
| TEN | Q4 0:53 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 13–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 18/27 | 196 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 20 | 112 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Shyrone Stith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan McCardell | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 13/21 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 29 | 167 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 1 | 54 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 2 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Erron Kinney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.3%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.21