Closing spread
BUF -10
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:51 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:06 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:30 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:59 | 12 | 52 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 0:13 | 1 | 2 | — | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q2 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q2 15:00 | 2 | -1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 14:16 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| BUF | Q2 14:13 | 1 | 32 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:05 | 3 | -8 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q2 13:12 | 5 | 16 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q2 10:53 | 3 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| BUF | Q2 9:15 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 7:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–14 |
| BUF | Q2 5:40 | 5 | 53 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 3:23 | 5 | -11 | Punt | 10–14 |
| BUF | Q2 1:57 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:22 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–14 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q3 13:08 | 5 | 17 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| BUF | Q3 10:30 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q3 8:58 | 2 | 52 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| BUF | Q3 8:09 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LAC | Q3 6:31 | 6 | 47 | Punt | 24–14 |
| BUF | Q3 3:59 | 9 | 78 | — | 24–14 |
| BUF | Q4 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| BUF | Q4 15:00 | 3 | 22 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| LAC | Q4 13:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–21 |
| BUF | Q4 12:42 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 24–21 |
| LAC | Q4 10:27 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 24–21 |
| BUF | Q4 7:59 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 24–21 |
| LAC | Q4 5:31 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 24–21 |
| BUF | Q4 2:33 | 11 | 69 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| LAC | Q4 0:07 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 24–24 |
| BUF | OT | 0 | 0 | Punt | 24–24 |
| BUF | OT | 6 | 27 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LAC | OT | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 24–24 |
| BUF | OT | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 29/47 | 321 | 1 | 1 |
| Doug Flutie | 2/3 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 11 | 16 | 170 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 6 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 6 | 8 | 47 | 1 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.