Closing spread
BUF -10
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.8 points. BUF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 29/47 | 321 | 1 | 1 |
| Doug Flutie | 2/3 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 11 | 16 | 170 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 6 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 6 | 8 | 47 | 1 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.