Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
35
Model margin
+1.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.056
- 39.2%Success rate40.2%
- +0.085EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.052
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- 42.4%Third-down rate40.7%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
- 1.28Points / drive1.45
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.217
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. BAL are 12-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 11/21 | 101 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Thomas | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sanders | 3 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 17/32 | 229 | 0 | 3 |
| Trent Dilfer | 7/13 | 58 | 0 | 1 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 8 | 12 | 104 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 4 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
39.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.23
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.61