2000 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

14·6

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

35

Model margin

+1.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapRavens
  • -0.033EPA / play-0.056
  • 39.2%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.052
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.4%
  • 42.4%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.45
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.194EPA / play allowed-0.217

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. BAL are 12-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BAL
BALQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:4349Turnover on downs0–0
BALQ1 11:151159Field goal0–3
TENQ1 5:0434Punt0–3
BALQ1 2:311582Field goal0–6
TENQ2 10:44430Punt0–6
BALQ2 8:38850Punt0–6
TENQ2 3:5531Punt0–6
BALQ2 2:243-8Punt0–6
TENQ2 1:38538Touchdown7–6
BALQ2 0:4453End of half7–6
TENQ3 15:0037Punt13–6
BALQ3 13:2810Opp touchdown14–6
TENQ3 13:2200Opp touchdown14–6
BALQ3 13:22431Turnover14–6
TENQ3 11:0639Punt14–6
BALQ3 9:54625Punt14–6
TENQ3 7:0738Punt14–6
BALQ3 4:42868Turnover14–6
TENQ3 0:58320Turnover14–6
BALQ4 14:5237Punt14–6
TENQ4 13:38824Turnover14–6
BALQ4 9:4838Turnover14–6
TENQ4 8:29644Punt14–6
BALQ4 4:271247Turnover on downs14–6
TENQ4 1:203-3End of half14–6

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair11/2110111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rodney Thomas18532.90
Steve McNair7334.70
Eddie George144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Sanders38600
Derrick Mason22170
Rodney Thomas33131
Yancey Thigpen1260
Frank Wycheck2350
Erron Kinney0200

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks17/3222903
Trent Dilfer7/135801
Jermaine Lewis1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis17583.40
Priest Holmes6305.00
Tony Banks4133.30
Trent Dilfer2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe8121040
Qadry Ismail411760
Jamal Lewis22360
Travis Taylor38250
Ben Coates12220
Jermaine Lewis34180
Priest Holmes3350
Pat Johnson1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

39.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.23
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.61