Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+7.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.059
- 39.6%Success rate39.9%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.203
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- 37.5%Third-down rate38.0%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.29Points / drive1.36
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.101EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 28/38 | 293 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 5 | 5 | 131 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 6 | 9 | 69 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 6 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 18/35 | 253 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 6 | 8 | 137 | 0 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.14
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+6.96