2000 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

20·23

Bills

Buffalo

QB Doug Flutie

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 46°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+7.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.059
  • 39.6%Success rate39.9%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.203
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 37.5%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.36
  • 3.5%Turnover rate1.8%
  • -0.101EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
NYJQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:3142Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:1433Punt0–0
BUFQ1 9:44955Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 5:01863Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 0:59418Punt7–7
NYJQ2 14:02613Turnover7–7
BUFQ2 11:161049Field goal7–10
NYJQ2 5:1620Opp touchdown7–17
BUFQ2 4:4900Opp touchdown7–17
NYJQ2 4:491027Turnover7–17
BUFQ2 0:331-1End of half7–17
BUFQ3 15:00740Turnover on downs7–17
NYJQ3 11:221046Field goal10–17
BUFQ3 6:19418Punt10–17
NYJQ3 4:42893Touchdown17–17
BUFQ3 1:0427—17–17
BUFQ400Missed field goal17–17
BUFQ4 15:001041Missed field goal17–17
NYJQ4 9:43322Turnover17–17
BUFQ4 8:11552Field goal17–20
NYJQ4 6:14966Field goal20–20
BUFQ4 2:201057Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde28/3829322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin18462.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles551310
Wayne Chrebet69691
Curtis Martin68310
Dedric Ward34250
Fred Baxter22131
Jermaine Wiggins0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Flutie18/3525300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sammy Morris19542.81
Shawn Bryson6172.80
Doug Flutie4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds681370
Jeremy McDaniel35440
Sammy Morris56390
Peerless Price15170
Jay Riemersma15130
Shawn Bryson2230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.14
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+6.96