2000 · Week 10 · Division

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Doug Flutie

16·13

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

Foxboro Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

NE -2

Total

39

Model margin

-1.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.059EPA / play-0.079
  • 39.9%Success rate38.3%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.195
  • 8.5%Explosive rate5.5%
  • 38.0%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.30
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.010

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NE
BUFQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:56527Punt0–0
BUFQ1 8:161279Field goal3–0
NEQ1 1:19538Turnover3–0
BUFQ2 13:42862Touchdown10–0
NEQ2 10:10726Punt10–0
BUFQ2 6:0933Punt10–0
NEQ2 5:05415Punt10–0
BUFQ2 2:40519Turnover10–0
NEQ2 1:0733Field goal10–3
BUFQ2 0:201-1End of half10–3
NEQ3 15:00613Punt10–3
BUFQ3 11:5538Punt10–3
NEQ3 10:2873Turnover10–3
BUFQ3 8:16416Punt10–3
NEQ3 6:1069Punt10–3
BUFQ3 2:1030Punt10–3
NEQ3 1:0430Punt10–3
BUFQ3 0:0036Punt10–3
NEQ4 13:571137Touchdown10–10
BUFQ4 9:0057Punt10–10
NEQ4 6:0832Punt10–10
BUFQ4 4:5436Punt10–10
NEQ4 3:53517Field goal10–13
BUFQ4 2:031061Field goal13–13
NEQ4 0:0410End of half13–13
NEOT3-1Punt13–13
BUFOT630Field goal16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Flutie18/3717910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shawn Bryson13604.60
Sammy Morris10454.50
Doug Flutie5234.60
Antowain Smith3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jay Riemersma69491
Sammy Morris45410
Peerless Price36360
Eric Moulds49290
Jeremy McDaniel15240
Sheldon Jackson0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Friesz11/216601
Drew Bledsoe3/55001
Michael Bishop0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.R. Redmond24682.81
Tony Carter6193.20
Drew Bledsoe155.00
Kevin Faulk221.00
Troy Brown1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown37490
Terry Glenn37250
Tony Simmons12220
J.R. Redmond56190
Tony Carter1160
Rod Rutledge0100
Shockmain Davis0100
Chris Eitzmann0100
Kevin Faulk11-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.14
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-1.58