Closing spread
NE -2
Total
39
Model margin
-1.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.079
- 39.9%Success rate38.3%
- +0.029EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.195
- 8.5%Explosive rate5.5%
- 38.0%Third-down rate35.1%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.36Points / drive1.30
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.010
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 18/37 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Bryson | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Doug Flutie | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Riemersma | 6 | 9 | 49 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 4 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 1 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Friesz | 11/21 | 66 | 0 | 1 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3/5 | 50 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Bishop | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.R. Redmond | 24 | 68 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Tony Carter | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 3 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 5 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shockmain Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Eitzmann | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.14
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.58