Closing spread
TEN -8
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play-0.033
- 38.6%Success rate39.2%
- -0.014EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.9%
- 37.4%Third-down rate42.4%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 1.37Points / drive1.28
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.119EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:17 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 9:12 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:52 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 0:53 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q2 14:13 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 13:28 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q2 12:25 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q2 10:03 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q2 5:45 | 13 | 86 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q2 0:52 | 4 | 19 | End of half | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q3 13:43 | 13 | 69 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q3 6:02 | 7 | 13 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q3 3:28 | 12 | 70 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q4 12:49 | 9 | 55 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| TEN | Q4 8:27 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 7–6 |
| PIT | Q4 4:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–6 |
| TEN | Q4 3:42 | 9 | 62 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| PIT | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 7–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 7/22 | 112 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Plaxico Burress | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Cory Geason | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Courtney Hawkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 20/31 | 227 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 34 | 98 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 8 | 11 | 92 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 4 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.61